Monday, February 1, 2016

Armada World Cup: Elimination Quarter-Finals - Ardaedhel vs Clontroper5

And then there were eight.  The Elimination round is heating up with the 8 winners advancing to the quarter finals.  Let's take a look at the matchups, and see what each of the contestants are bringing to the table.  Your current "Biggs Pre-Match Bet" record is a resounding 5-1, with a single game left to play (Reith/JRock plays Tuesday)

Quarter-Final Matchups are as follows:

Ardaedhel vs Clontroper5 - Today's Topic
JJs Juggernaut vs Quadro28

Magadmire vs Carribean Ninja - Tomorrow's Topic
Truthiness vs (Reith/JRock)

First Elimination Round - Zanos vs Quadro28

Ardaedhel vs Clontroper

Man Your Own Jackhammers (388/400)
Assault Frigate Mark II: Assault Frigate Mk.II B (72 + 35)
+ Garm Bel Iblis (25)
+ Flight Controllers (6)
+ Boosted Comms (4)
Assault Frigate Mark II: Assault Frigate Mk.II B (72 + 20)
+ Adar Tallon (10)
+ Flight Controllers (6)
+ Boosted Comms (4)
Nebulon-B Frigate: Nebulon-B Escort Frigate (57 + 8)
+ Veteran Captain (3)
+ Yavaris (5)
Squadrons: B-wing Squadron (14)
Squadrons: B-wing Squadron (14)
Squadrons: B-wing Squadron (14)
Squadrons: B-wing Squadron (14)
Squadrons: B-wing Squadron (14)
Squadrons: Jan Ors (19)
Squadrons: Wedge Antilles (19)
Squadrons: "Dutch" Vander (16)

clontroper5 387
+ Gladiator Star Destroyer (98pts) +
Gladiator I-Class Star Destroyer (98pts) [Engine Techs (8pts), Expanded Launchers (13pts), Intel Officer (7pts), Ordnance Experts (4pts), •Demolisher (10pts)]
+ Raider Corvette (273pts) +
Raider I-Class Corvette (68pts) [Expanded Launchers (13pts), Intel Officer (7pts), Ordnance Experts (4pts)]
Raider I-Class Corvette (68pts) [Expanded Launchers (13pts), Intel Officer (7pts), Ordnance Experts (4pts)]
Raider I-Class Corvette (80pts) [Assault Proton Torpedoes (5pts), •Admiral Montferrat (5pts), •Admiral Screed (26pts)]
Raider I-Class Corvette (57pts) [Assault Proton Torpedoes (5pts), Ordnance Experts (4pts), •Instigator (4pts)]
+ Squadrons (16pts) +
TIE Fighter Squadron (8pts)
TIE Fighter Squadron (8pts)

Leading up to this matchup, Ardaedhel won his POD in an unsuspecting way:  Having gotten 8 points for a win against one opponent, and seeing another vanish from the tournament, he and his remaining opponent (himself a replacement) were unable to find any time to play their final game.  This 16 points was still enough (as no one else was able to schedule many games) to find himself firmly in 1st place of his POD.  Moving on to eliminations, he managed to win an inspired game against Qark, using his B-Wings to incredible effect, and advancing to the Quarter Finals.

Clontroper5 has been intimidating throughout the tournament.  Winning his first three POD games by a total tournament score of 29, and an MOV of 1013, he has carved a bloody swath through the tournament so far and has been called the player to beat going into the elimination round.  He showed as much in his elimination game against Miedomeda, racking up a dominating table, while only losing two TIE Fighters and his Demolisher to post-capital ship destruction bombing runs.  Admittedly, he was helped in this by sub-optimal Second Player objective choices (Fleet Ambush) that left him right in range of destruction on the very first turn.

An interesting matchup.  Ardaedhel is up against one of the few players that actually outbid him in the tournament, 388 to 387 in Clontroper's favor.  As he has stated multiple times, Clontroper's list thrives on going first, punching hard, and not letting up until every opposing ship is dead.

On the other had, if Clontroper's list has any form of weakness, it is against Fighter/Bombers, bringing only 2 TIE Squadrons and Raiders for anti-fighter support.  If Ardaedhel gets off enough of an initial strike to destroy his ships early, particularly with a timely Yavaris activation, things could get ugly fast.  Objective play is probably not going to be seen here - this will be a tabling for one side or another.

For the numbers, deployment advantage is strongly in Ardaedhel's favor, 7 - 6, with Clontroper likely increasing that advantage by taking first player.  For activation advantage though it lies with Clontroper, getting 5 to his opponent's 3.

Biggs Pre-Matchup Bet:  

I have a hard time betting on anyone besides Clontroper at this point, but if there's a matchup where he might be disadvantaged, this is the one.  B-Wing swarms may be enough to disrupt his anti-squadron defenses... but that is where all the anti-ship oomph is for Ard's list.  I just don't see it ending in Ard's favor, unless he gets some really good licks in on Clon's list during the approach.

Ard, I'm rooting for you, but the smart money is on Clontroper to dominate the battlefield again and move on to the Semi-Finals.

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